Originally posted: October 10, 2017
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Let’s take a look at notable salary changes as we head into Week 6 of the NFL season.
Matthew Stafford (DET): $8,500 @ NO (+$900)
Stafford scored just 15.16 FDP in Week 5 against the Panthers, yet his salary spiked $900 heading into a Week 6 matchup against the Saints. New Orleans has been better against the pass after getting torched in the first two games, as they haven’t allowed a passing touchdown or more than 184 yards passing over their last two games. The Saints are allowing 18.6 FDP per game to opposing quarterbacks, which ranks 23rd in the league. This is likely why Stafford’s price jumped, rather than his actual performance, which has been average at best for most of the season. There’s some concern over a leg injury as well, so be sure to monitor his healthy leading into the weekend. All in all, Stafford is a fine tournament play, but there’s not much profit built into his salary after a big increase.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $7,400 @ KC (-$500)
Well, if Roethlisberger doesn’t know what the heck is going on, that certainly doesn’t bode well for the future. Roethlisberger chucked the ball 55 times in Week 5, and it amazingly took that many attempts to barely eclipse 300 passing yards. He also threw five interceptions against zero touchdowns, which left him with a score of 7.58 FDP. Granted, this was not a good matchup, but I don’t think anyone saw this coming. He will now travel to Kansas City to face the undefeated Chiefs, who have actually struggled against the pass through five games. They rank 27th in FDP allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is punctuated by the five touchdowns allowed to Deshaun Watson in Week 5. We could very well be witnessing the waning days of Roethlisberger’s career, and with his road splits also providing a cause for concern, there’s some trepidation on whether or not to utilize him moving forward. Still, if you have multiple tournament lineups this week, I’d consider throwing him in one as his salary does provide plenty of profit potential.
Leonard Fournette (JAX): $8,600 vs. LAR (+$1,000)
Fournette scored his fifth rushing touchdown of the season in Week 5, while dismantling the Steelers to the tune of 181 rushing yards on 28 carries. He not only had a nasty stiff arm of a defender, but he immediately waved on more defenders to punish on the same play! The Jaguars will return home to face the Rams in Week 6, who are allowing the most FDP per game to opposing running backs through five games. With Fournette receiving all the volume he can handle, he is a phenomenal play this week despite the salary increase, as the matchup is too good to ignore.
Duke Johnson (CLE): $5,600 @ HOU (-$400)
Despite scoring at least 15.8 FDP for the third straight week, Johnson’s price dropped heading into Week 6 against the Texans. This is a bad matchup on paper, but there could very well be plenty of garbage time to be had this week, as the Browns figure to be trailing early and often. Johnson did only receive three targets in the passing game, but he had 15 in the previous two games combined, so I’m hoping this was more of an anomaly heading into Week 6. All told, I still think Johnson merits GPP consideration this week.
Roger Lewis (NYG): $5,900 @ DEN (+$1,400)
Yikes! The Giants lost not one, not two, not three, but FOUR receivers in their Week 5 loss to the Chargers. Things got so ugly so fast that Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson are already clamoring for their shot to return to the NFL. In all seriousness, this is a bad situation for the Giants, and things won’t get any easier in Week 6 as they are tasked with a primetime trip to Denver. Despite a likely big boost in volume, I don’t know if I can trust Lewis in such a poor matchup in Week 6.
Mike Evans (TB): $8,100 @ ARI (-$800)
The Buccaneers are coming off of a gut-wrenching loss in Week 5 in which kicker Nick Folk likely cost them the win against the Patriots after missing three field goals. Evans scored just 7.4 FDP despite being targeted eight times in a plus matchup against New England, which likely helped to cause his drop in salary. The other reason is probably due to the perceived matchup, but let’s be honest, something is wrong in Arizona. They rank 27th in terms of FDP allowed per game to opposing receivers, and they were just abused by Carson Wentz in Week 5. Evans will likely draw plenty of attention this week from the likes of Patrick Peterson, but he’s discounted enough that I think I would roll the dice on him in tournament play.
George Kittle (SF): $5,300 @ WAS (+$800)
Kittle hauled in seven of his nine targets for 83 yards and a score in Week 5 against the Colts, which is a stark departure from his production year-to-date. While it remains to be seen if he will maintain a useful role for fantasy purposes moving forward, he does have a plus matchup awaiting him again in Week 6. While the Redskins have allowed the third-most FDP per game to opposing tight ends, I wouldn’t utilize Kittle as anything more than a deep tournament flier.
Delanie Walker (TEN) : $5,700 vs. IND (-$300)
Speaking of good matchups, Walker will face the same team in Week 6 who surrendered a big line to George Kittle in Week 5. The Colts rank 28th in FDP allowed per game to opposing tight ends, and with a drop in salary, I think Walker is in play this week. He’s had three-straight down weeks, but I look for the Titans to take advantage of the plus matchup on Monday night.
Source: Fantasy Pros
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