Originally posted: October 13, 2017
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Let me start by pointing out a previous error I made. When building the Thursday/Sunday/Monday FanDuel team, I misread the schedule and discussed the Broncos/Giants game as the Monday Night Football game. As it turns out, the only member from the Thursday Night Football game and Monday Night Football game on the roster was kicker Jake Elliott ($4,600), so that roster (which can be seen here) is also GPP worthy on the main slate once you swap in a different kicker. Having gotten that out of the way, the lineup below features a slightly different mix of players. If you’re a multi-entry GPP gamer like myself, you can run the previously suggested roster with this one.
Drew Brees (NO): $8,600 vs. Lions
Since yesterday’s piece was published, the line has moved a point. The Saints are now only 4.5-point favorites instead of 5.5-point favorites, according to Pinnacle, but the game’s over/under total remains the highest on the slate at 50 points. Brees is a fire-breathing giant at home, and the Lions are coming off of an embarrassing showing defensively against Cam Newton and the Panthers. Cam isn’t nearly as talented or accomplished a passer as Brees is. I’ll reiterate that Deshaun Watson ($7,900) is the chalk at quarterback and a great play in all game types, but Brees is an elite caliber pivot.
Kareem Hunt (KC): $9,300 vs. Steelers
Hunt’s a fresh play from the other roster. He replaces C.J. Anderson. The Chiefs’ stud rookie will be the chalkier play, but he has a cushy matchup against the Steelers. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Steelers in the middle of the pack defending the run at 15th, and they check in slightly above average ranking 10th defending backs in the passing game. Having said that, they’ve coughed up the fourth most FanDuel points per game to running backs (25.3), and Hunt’s been the game’s best this year. Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yards (609), rushing yards per game (121.8), and yards from scrimmage (775). He’s caught three or more passes in four of five games, and he’s averaging 33.2 yards receiving per game while hauling in a pair of scores. Hunt’s been held out of the end zone in back-to-back games, but he’s riding a three-game streak of besting 100 yards rushing, and he’s hit triple-digit yardage as a runner in four games overall with a season-low of 81 yards on the ground in Week 2. He’s been elite and consistent, and there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down this week with the Chiefs serving as four-point favorites at home with an implied team total of 25.5 points.
Jerick McKinnon (MIN): $5,600 vs. Packers
McKinnon’s a chalky carryover from the DFS LINEUP ADVICE – WEEK 6 post. Nothing has changed to warrant altering my analysis, so check that out here. I’ll add that if you wish to use C.J. Anderson with Hunt instead, you can do so by moving down to Watson at quarterback and spinning down from my highlighted defense (my preferred option to spin down to in order to make the salary work is the Buccaneers).
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,500 vs. Lions
Thomas remains the stack partner with Brees, but I can now point out that he’ll likely draw Darius Slay in coverage, at least according to the info at Pro Football Focus (PFF). PFF credits the Lions with playing shadow coverage in three of five games, per their Shadow Coverage Matrix. I suspected that would be the matchup when touting Thomas the other day, so this doesn’t change my view of using him. Slay is a tough draw in coverage, but at 6-0 and 192 pounds, per Pro-Football Reference, he cedes three inches and 22 pounds to the bigger Thomas. The second-year wideout has been targeted at least eight times in all four games, and he’s riding a three-game streak of besting 85 yards receiving. He’s also scored a touchdown in back-to-back games.
Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,200 @ Chiefs
Brown’s another carryover. It’s no secret that the Chiefs don’t use Marcus Peters in shadow coverage, so the Steelers will almost certainly move Brown around to draw favorable matchups. FO ranks Kansas City 22nd defending No. 1 receivers, and they’ve yielded the third most FanDuel points per game to wideouts this year. Even if the Steelers wisely lean on their workhorse back more with Ben Roethlisberger struggling mightily this year, Brown should still get a ton of looks. His season low is nine targets in a game, and he’s received 11 or more in the other four contests including 19 that he turned into 10 grabs for 157 yards last week.
Kenny Golladay (DET): $4,700 @ Saints
Golladay hasn’t played since Week 3. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so it appears he’s trending in the right direction. You’ll need to monitor his practice status today and his injury report designation heading into play over the weekend, but assuming he’s active, I like the matchup. Both of New Orleans’ outside corners, Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore, have top-10 cornerback grades at PFF. So from that perspective, it’s not a great matchup for Golladay regardless of who he draws outside. Like Thomas against Slay, however, Golladay (6-4 and 218 pounds) holds a big size advantage over both Crawley (6-1 and 180 pounds) and Lattimore (6-0 and 193 pounds). Golladay’s been quiet since turning in a 4-69-2 line on seven targets in the season opener, but his size makes him an enticing option for Matthew Stafford to air it out to on big plays and in the red zone. Even as 4.5-point underdogs, the Lions have a solid implied team total of 22.75 points. Furthermore, the spread implies an ideal game-script for Detroit’s pass catchers. At just $4,700, Golladay doesn’t have to do much to hit value, and after missing a couple weeks and posting a pair of duds in Week 2 and Week 3, I suspect the rookie receiver will be low owned.
Ryan Griffin (HOU): $4,500 vs. Browns
As is the case with McKinnon, there’s nothing new to add here from my analysis in the DFS LINEUP ADVICE – WEEK 6 post. I’m down on the top options at tight end this week, and Griffin offers a ton of points-per-dollar upside as a minimum salary punt against the most fantasy-friendly defense for tight ends to face this season.
Nick Novak (LAC): $4,500 @ Raiders
Jake Elliott played in the Thursday Night Football game and wasn’t eligible to use on the main slate, so I’ve opted to swap him out for a minimum salary option. New Chargers’ kicker Nick Novak banged through both of his field-goal attempts and all three of his point-after attempts in his debut with his new club last week. The Raiders have surrendered the most field-goal attempts (16) this year, and their struggles keeping teams out of the end zone as well has resulted in tying for 15th in point-after attempts (10), too.
Falcons (ATL): $5,000 vs. Dolphins
There’s not enough salary left from the selected options on offense to slot in Denver’s D/ST, but the Falcons make for an attractive alternative. Early in the week, it appeared the 2016 leader in sacks, Vic Beasley might return this week. It’s looking unlikely at this point in the week, though. While that’s a buzz kill, the Falcons are still 13-point favorites at home, coming off of a bye, and facing the worst offense in the league this year. All of those variables are ideal for a sky-high scoring ceiling. Miami’s the only offense in the NFL averaging under four yards per play (3.9 yards per play), and they rank dead last with 10.3 points per game. Their per-game scoring is remarkably 5.1 points lower than the next worst team. They’ve been completely inept, and Atlanta’s offense is fully capable of staking their defense to a huge lead. If the Falcons get historically turnover-prone Jay Cutler in obvious passing situations, I like their odds of turning him over multiple times.
Source: Fantasy Pros
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