Originally posted: November 10, 2017
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There are a few familiar faces on this roster. Five members of the DFS LINEUP ADVICE (THUR/SUN/MON) lineup are carryovers to this team. There is a new three-man team stack, however, and a minimum priced receiver joins the mix as a high-risk option with the type of upside worth taking a chance on in GPPs.
Matthew Stafford (DET): $8,200 vs. Browns
This roster starts off with a fresh face. Tom Brady headlines the Thur/Sun/Mon team, and I’ll have him on some of my GPP rosters for the main slate, too. However, I’m also going to have some shares of Stafford.
Detroit ranks 29th in rushing yards per game (79.9), according to Pro-Football-Reference, and their offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards for rushing, per Football Outsiders (FO). They’re facing a Browns’ defense that FO ranks first in run defense. This isn’t a good week for them to right the ship with their running game, and that sets up favorably for Stafford to carve up Cleveland’s defense that FO ranks 28th defending the pass.
Stafford is tied for second only to the aforementioned Brady in pass attempts (303) this season, and Stafford also ranks seventh in touchdown passes (14), tied for 10th in adjusted yards per attempt (7.6), and fifth in passing yards per game (276.5). The NFL’s highest-paid quarterback has been better at home than on the road in his career, and he’s tied to a fantasy-friendly implied team over/under total of 26.25 points, per Pinnacle.
Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,400 @ Colts
Jordan Howard (CHI): $7,200 vs. Packers
This backfield is identical to the one from the Thur/Sun/Mon lineup. You can find the analysis of why I love both backs (as well as Howard’s stack partner, the Bears DST) here.
Marvin Jones Jr. (DET): $6,400 vs. Browns
Golden Tate (DET): $7,400 vs. Browns
Jones Jr. is another repeat play, but this time he’s a stack partner with Stafford. The Browns have been torched by tight ends this year, but Eric Ebron has been inconsistent (to put it mildly), and I’d prefer to go with the more talented Gronk again on this team. Ebron’s a fine stack partner with Stafford in GPPs, too, thanks to the matchup and the salary relief he’ll provide from Gronk, but my preference is to double up on Stafford’s receivers.
As I previously noted with Jones Jr., he’s been on a tear of late averaging over 100 yards receiving per game in his last three, but that hasn’t prevented Tate from shining, too. Over the last three games, while Jones Jr. has been erupting, Tate has reeled in 21 of 24 targets for 295 yards and one touchdown. He’s caught exactly seven passes in each of those three games, and his average of 98.33 yards receiving per game in his last three is nothing to sneeze at.
For the year, Tate’s averaging 6.3 receptions and 70.3 yards receiving per game. The Browns’ ranks defending wide receivers are a mixed bag at FO with them ranking dead last defending No. 1 receivers, second defending No. 2 receivers, and 13th defending “other” receivers. I’m not concerned about the second ranking sprinkled in there, and there should be plenty of football to go around to these two if the Lions wisely air it out against the Browns instead of fruitlessly running against their stout run defense.
Dede Westbrook (JAC): $4,500 vs. Chargers
Westbrook has yet to play a regular season snap in his rookie season as a result of opening the year on IR with the designation to return, and there was some thought he’d be activated to play last week. That didn’t happen, but the expectation is that he’ll be a go this weekend against the Chargers.
He won the Biletnikoff Award as college football’s best wide receiver last year after totaling 80 receptions, 1,524 yards, 17 touchdown receptions, and 10 carries for 101 yards for Oklahoma, per Sports-Reference. He had a huge preseason leading the Jaguars with 13 receptions and the league with 288 yards receiving while hauling in a pair of scores.
The Jaguars spent a fourth-round pick on Westbrook, but he was primarily available at that point because of serious character issues as opposed to football skill deficiencies. His college production coupled with his preseason success — not to mention intriguing measurables –make him a player whose skills are greater than the typical minimum salary option at receiver.
The floor could be as low as a goose egg for him this week, though, since it’s unclear how many snaps he’ll play and how many targets will be available for him in a run-first offense that will be getting Leonard Fournette back after he missed Week 7 due to an ankle injury and last week due to breaking a team rule. However, Westbrook’s home-run ability and the lack of top-flight receivers ahead of him on the depth chart could result in a hefty return on a minimal investment right out of the chute. Add in that he’s likely to be extremely low owned, and I’ll take the plunge.
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $8,100 @ Broncos
While Gronk isn’t stacked with Brady on this roster, my reasons for loving him here remain the same as loving him on the DFS LINEUP ADVICE (THUR/SUN/MON) roster. Among tight ends this year, Gronk ranks fifth in targets (56), tied for eighth in receptions (34), tied for second in touchdown receptions (five), and first in receiving yards per game (72.7).
Robbie Gould (SF): $4,500 vs. Giants
A minimum salary kicker is necessary to get all of the other pieces on this roster, and Gould is the best of those options. The 49ers are tied for eighth in field-goal attempts (20), and Gould has knocked through 18 of his 20 attempts.
The 49ers play a potentially equally bad Giants squad this week, so the game should stay close (it has just a one-point spread favoring the visiting Giants). This reduces the risk of the 49ers getting blown out and having to forego field-goal attempts late to chase touchdowns and dig themselves out of a big hole.
Bears (CHI): $4,300 vs. Packers
Again, here’s a look at why I love the Bears D/ST this week.
Source: Fantasy Pros
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